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SUMMARY
Get a grip on essentials
ZERO IN ON PACE AND POSITION
In an earlier article I posed the question, "How many times have you blown your money in the first few seconds of a race?" The reality is today, more than ever before, horse-racing is about the three P's: position, pace and performance.
Position: The in-running position a horse settles and races in during a race.
SUMMARY
PPM’s experts discuss number crunching
THE LURE OF THE TOP FOUR
In the latest part of our Form Forum series, Mike Jenkins and Jon Hudson discuss the merits, or otherwise, of the top four horses in the field and the betting market.
JON HUDSON (JH): Mike, you're a relatively new member of the PPM team so I don't know much about your thinking on various aspects of the game, so I'll ask you straight away what your thoughts are on this top four business. Is this grouping something the punters should get excited about?
SUMMARY
Another form chart bonus
TEST OUT THE FAVS
Our “form chart” series has proved to be a popular one. So far we’ve covered all three racing codes, and in this article we are switching back to the gallops.
What we’re after is a simple method of determining “true favourites” or, at least, those favourites with as many positive factors in their favour as possible.
I decided to limit the factors to 10, as you’ll see from the chart on page 41. You can photocopy the chart and use it for any number of races.
SUMMARY
What makes a false favourite?
THOSE SHONKY HOTPOTS!
I often get asked questions about racing, not only on the punting side of the sport but also in a broader sense as well. Here is a selection of recent questions and answers.
Wayne Barker of Sydney asks:
Mention is often made of media hype leading to a horse being a false favourite (or at least one which is poor value) and the amount of "mug money" which is bet on such horses. My question is, then, what do you believe leads to a horse being favourite (apart from the obvious weight of money)? Is it a consensus of rating experts, media hype, or inside information from the stable or other connections?
SUMMARY
Secrets of the favourites
LAST LAUGH ON THE HOTPOTS
We have been involved in an enormous study of favourites, preparing for a rather large and important article in the 2000 PPM Annual.
We, being Steve and Scan McAllister and Yours Truly, took all those favourites that ran between the start of the 1998-99 season and now, and we put them through some tests.
We got rid of all the dual and multi favourites, as we only wanted outright favourites so we could deal with one per race. The results of some of these tests fulfilled all our expectations: outright favourites lose just over seven out of every ten races. They win about 28 to 30 per cent of races they contest. They get as high as 33 per cent in some odd years and as low as 25 per cent in others, but on average it's somewhere close to 29 per cent.
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