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How many times have you seen a horse finish strongly to win, only to plod home as an unplaced favourite at its next run? What about the front-runner that defies all challengers in the straight one start, but is then beaten on the turn at its next?
These sudden form reversals may seem like just another element in the great uncertainty of racing, but more often than not they can be explained by one very important factor: the influence of early pace.
In the December 2005 edition of PPM, I wrote an article which attacked one of racing’s most time honored core values, the issue of weights and how it impacted on form analysis. The essence of the article was to advocate that form students should forget about weights as a major form tool.
My research into this area revealed that “doing the weights” had little predictive value and punters should shift their focus to other areas of form data, which would have greater benefit in the selection process.
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