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SUMMARY
The ‘value’ factor triggers a battle between friends
KEN FIRES A ROCKET AT ROMAN KOZLOVSKI
In the last two issues of PPM, my old schoolmate and colleague Roman Kozlovski has drawn from his personal experiences of more than 40 years on the punt, forwarding to readers his five most valuable lessons learnt during this period.In principle I fully concur with most points, though I am certainly at odds with his stance on the issue of value – to the point where I think he’s got this one horribly wrong.
SUMMARY
Value, laying, plunging in the fight for value
THE MENACE OF THE ODDS-ON CERTENTY
Where does the truth lie?
Where indeed does the truth lie? What represents good value for a horse?
Is it reasonable to argue that “any price about a winner is a good price?” I’ve always thought that this was amongst the more stupid clichés that are pumped out by the media, when they can’t think of anything else to say about what looks to be a certainty. Certainties are only obvious after the race.
SUMMARY
Get that profit meter ticking, but is . . .
ANY PRICE A WINNER?
I don't care about the price, at least I've backed a winner," I heard a chap say at my local TAB recently. He'd just had $10 on a winner that paid $2.20. Good luck to him, but ... long term, what's his likelihood of success?Unless he can do what most other punters never do, make a good profit from backing horses at around 5/4, then he will lose anything from 3 cents to 30 cents in the dollar, depending on his skill at eliminating the bad-value 5/4 shots.
So is that well-known statement ANY PRICE A WINNER worth thought at all? In my view, no. For the simple, basic reason that success in this game means getting VALUE (and I know there's even a debate now about whether VALUE even exists!).
SUMMARY
Battling for the best price – is it worth it?
THE PROBLEM WITH VALUE
Does 'value' exist BEFORE a race? Or is it only in existence AFTER a race when the winner is known? These are just two of the many questions that crop up when any discussion of the concept of value takes place.Each person has his or her own idea of what constitutes 'value' in a race. One man's assessed 6/4 is another man's assessed 3/1, with both claiming that they have the value'. One or both will be proven wrong.
Value is a concept that punters embrace or despise, says US expert Barry Meadow, publisher of Meadow's Racing Monthly and author of many best-selling books on betting.
SUMMARY
Now to find true value
LAYING IT ON!
The term 'overlay' betting has been used a great deal in recent times. What it really means is 'value' securing a better price about a horse than its true chance reflects.
It attempts to take the gamble out of betting. If you invest your money carefully on sound selections, and if you refuse to accept poor value, then you are betting sensibly.
No-one has to be a university educated economist to understand that success in the racing game, as in any business, depends to a large degree on obtaining value. The better value you obtain the more profit you will make. It's as straightforward as that.
