"I have never had so much success (or fun) with the punt. Thanx heaps and great
punting to all!”
"I am very appreciative of the efforts that go into producing this outstanding information."
After
nobody hit the Pick 6 on a day when $1 million was guaranteed,
Hollywood Park offered a carryover of a hefty $683,636. My ticket? Zero.
Oh,
I worked on the ticket all right, as I do whenever there's a carryover.
I always start by writing down the names and numbers of every horse I
think can win.
The Fair and Value Price Place Betting Chart below has as its basis the theory written about by Roger Dedman in his book Commonsense Punting.
Taking Dedman's theory and adjusting it using my own formula, the chart takes into account such things as the tote operator's takeout, the rounding down of tote dividends and the bookmaker's over-rounds.
One of the most important things we as horseplayers have to do is calculate the likelihood that a particular event will take place.
On the simplest level, we need to make an odds line to predict how often Horse A will win this upcoming race.