Members Login
Testimonials
"I have never had so much success (or fun) with the punt. Thanx heaps and great
punting to all!”
"I am very appreciative of the efforts that go into producing this outstanding information."
A series which gives you the real background to the tracks
KNOW YOUR TRACKS (Part 1)
The pretty Doomben course has a straight of 354 metres. It is the smaller of the two tracks in Brisbane, but try to tell that to anyone watching the final furlong or so of the Doomben Ten Thousand. It's an easier straight than Eagle Farm's, in that you've got more chance of staying in front all the way down it than you ever have at the bigger course.
The races are run at a touch over 1000 metres (1010, give or take), 1200 metres, 1350 metres, 1600 metres, 1620 to 1630 metres, 2015 and 2020 metres (or so, up to 2030), and 2200 metres.
I am not tongue in cheek here: races do vary in length at this track, and I am at a loss to explain why. You can pick up any season's results and see all the variants. Given that the 1615 standard start is well up the chute, I assume the races of 1629 and so on can still be run from the chute, but there can't be a lot of space there behind the gates to wander about and tuck into a tuft of grass before they box you away.
The 1000 and 1100 starts are in the back straight, and there is only a short run to the home turn which is both acute and long, so any horse without speed and drawn out is in a lot of bother.
There is more room and more distance to travel from the 1200 to this acute turn, and so there is strong argument that it is better to draw the middle than the fence. If you think for a moment about being on the rail, unless a horse has abundant speed, with a whole lot of animals angling across it, you can imagine that the rail may not be ideal. Imagine the same position that can occur at the 1200 at Rosehill when the Golden Slipper is run. Although the layout is of course different, the effect can be similar. Not always, but it's a worry for bettors.
The 1350 is a marvellous start and it is host to the famous race, that one 1 called the Ten Thousand but is now the Hundred Thousand, and worth much more anyway. Times change but the start doesn't. It's a beauty. Arguably fast beginners with wide draws are still disadvantaged because the field is always jam-packed with sprinters. Horses can drop in behind the pack and the roomy straight allows them the space and the time to come home hard after the long, sharp, searching angle of the home turn. However, some Hundred Thousands are won by those able to go the early pace and skip clear.
Many legs have come to grief on this testing turn. Those who can handle it often win several races here.
There are few racetracks where I am so eager to see a "C" ("won at the course at this distance") next to a horse's name in the formguide!
The 2000 and 2200 starts are equally well-placed, with plenty of galloping space. The Rough Habit types love this kind of track, where you can drop out, lope along, let everyone else work, and even let them forget you're there ... then swoop home.
Really top horses win Doomben's Cup, and even if they are not the best at that time then they often become the best, so this race provides a fine guide to prospects. Besides Rough Habit's three wins on the trot, we have seen (this year) Danewin from Danasinga and Turridu, (in 1994) Durbridge from Paris Lane, then three years of Roughie, and then a list of excellent winners including Sydney Cup, Brisbane Cup, Gosford Cup and Caulfield Cup winners. The giant killer of the Australian Cup, Dandy Andy, won this race, and so on. It's a VVho's VVho of good Australian stayers.
The Doomben Ten Thousand (we still call it that) has its list of toffs, too. Top dasher Chief De Beers won this year, beating a certain All Our Mob (second in successive years). We all know what the remarkable All Our Mob did to top fields in the Newmarket, the Stradbroke and the Turnbull Stakes. There's Campaign King, Charlton Boy, Winfreux, Black Onyx twice, and back in 1946 with ten stone five pounds (yes, 65.5kg) there's a fellow called Bernborough, who made history when he won.
Click here to read Part 2.
Click here to read Part 3.
Click here to read Part 4.
By The Optimist
PRACTICAL PUNTING – DECEMBER 1995
A series which gives you the real background to the tracks
KNOW YOUR TRACKS (Part 3)
SANDOWN
When Sandown was opened in 1965, even those of us who were not Victorians were fascinated and thrilled by the new track.
The baby in racing soon established a niche for itself, racking up Australasian records for the very short distances, and also acquiring a reputation as a "horses for courses" track.
Some could not handle the downhill run, some relished it. Some floundered in the straight, others swept home.
Leaders rarely won. They rarely win now. I just about throw away my ticket if my horse leads into the straight at Sandown.
The best money-spinning Sandown horse I recall was the ill-fated Stainvita, who won, from memory, nine races there before putting his foot in a non-existent hole and snapping it, a hundred metres from the post, after being in a winning position at the time. A sad story for such a horse.
"Non-existent hole"? Well. that's what they said, but who will ever know?
Before the drainage was attended to I used to make a lot of money backing horses drawn wide at the 1600 on this track. I had a theory that the water didn't get through the ground out wide and that the camber pushed all rainwater to the
inside, meaning that the going for some 600 metres was way better out wide. Less slippery, in fact. I proved it with lots of winners. The 1400 seemed to also be able to throw up wide barrier winners on occasions, and when a good horse was at extended odds out wide, I moved in. What are the prospects of doing this today?
THE STARTS
The 1000 metre start is at the end of a chute, about 120 degrees off the straight. So you run about 600 metres down the chute then swing into the 407 metre straight.
The 1200 start is awkward. It flies into the 180 degree turn after travelling only about 350 metres, and that's why, regardless of my earlier theory, outside barriers aren't my favourite at this start. The official quote is that "barriers are of little importance". We shall see.
At 1400, we have more room, and at 1600 it's marvellous for all starters. The 2100 starts about 200m from the winning post, and although horses have to negotiate two 180 degree turns, the track is big enough to accommodate them. The 2400 is a superb start, placed slightly off the top of the straight, so they effectively run more than 400 metres before they turn. The steeple track takes off on its own merry way out the back for several hundred metres.
By the way, horses can carry big weights at Sandown and win. This has been a factor I have noted all the time the track's been in existence.
THE BARRIERS
At the 1000, allowing for the greater number of runners in the inside barriers, the only interesting factor is the anomaly in barrier 16. But it's from only 34 runners, whereas, say, barrier one had 182.
At the 1200, the strength of the middle barriers seems evident, and the number of runners doesn't taper off until barriers ten and eleven. The percentages are somewhat lower outside those barriers, as expected.
At the 1400, there were 183 runners in barrier 14 or wider, and while only sixteen won, that's 8.8 per cent and favourably comparable to several "better" draws.
At the 1600, what is most evident is that all barriers are fairly treated. I'd like to know how well the wide ones do when it's wet, but I don't have those figures. Perhaps a reader does?
At the 2100 and the 2400, we have again a nice even spread.
So, when you hear that every horse gets its chance at Sandown, you can believe it, except maybe at the 1200 if it's drawn wide on a firm track.
A horse in our ratings, Grand Baie, owns the track sprint record at the moment (54.80, very slick). Jeune holds the 1400 record (1:21.10), and he does go well elsewhere!
Next month: Moonee Valley, then Randwick, Cheltenham, and Morphettville.
Click here to read Part 4.
Click here to read Part 1.
Click here to read Part 2.
By The Optimist
PRACTICAL PUNTING - FEBRUARY 1996
SUMMARY
Stats point out the problems
BARRIERS AND DISTANCE
Recently we looked at the performance of barrier numbers and we were not too impressed. We’ll start this month off by checking out how barrier numbers perform over a range of distances.
The accepted view is that these numbers are only relevant in shorter races and particularly if there is a bend to be negotiated. In the following figures, there is an allowance of an extra 20 metres for any designated distance. This is to take account of the slight lengthening of the race caused if the rail has been moved. For example, an actual 1220m race would be considered as 1200m.
SUMMARY
The stats tell the story
BLITZ THE BARRIERS
In this column we take numbers and analyse the ways we can manipulate them to help us find winners and hopefully increase our bank balance. Which are the numbers that are most likely to be meaningful in this direction?We’ve already taken a look at favouritism, which is created by the opinions of punters. Obviously, the more money that punters put on a particular horse, the less its dividend will be.
SUMMARY
Statistics and angles on the great debate
WIDE GATES AND STRIKE RATES
One of the perennial debates in racing is over the effects of the barrier draw on a horse’s chances in a race.
In August 2003, I joined in a discussion on the web-based racing forum, AusRace, regarding barriers.
Peter Harrop, a regular contributor, wrote: “I think the only correct way to quote barrier statistics is to put in place a minimum field size. If you only include races with field sizes of 12 horses or more, then the barrier statistics of barriers one to 12 have relevance and are comparable. When this is done on NZ races, there is a slight correlation between barrier draw and winningness, but the decline on the graph isn’t enough to make a spring slinky work.
Page 1 of 2
<< Start < Prev 1 2 Next > End >>
