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SUMMARY
How to win with classy older gallopers
AGE SHALL NOT WEARY THEM
Up until I came to Australia, you will have found me having a deep, unmovable aversion to betting certain kinds of horses – older horses, in fact.
When I was a bettor in the UK I would get the collywobbles just thinking about backing horses over the age of six in a Group-class flat race in Europe. I might have considered backing an older horse of seven or perhaps eight years of age in one of the bigger handicap races at Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood, but six years of age definitely seemed the cut-off point in the big races.
SUMMARY
How to fight the riddles of the formguides
MAJORITY RULES
A rich businessman once gave me some advice. "Always remember," he said, "that 80 per cent of everything is usually controlled by 20 per cent. In my business, I always know that 80 per cent of my business comes from 20 per cent of my clients. I make sure I look after this 20 per cent."
This chap didn't invent the 80 / 20 idea. In the nineteenth century, Vilfredo Pareto "discovered" it. He was an Italian engineer, economist, sociologist and avid gardener. He worked out that 80 per cent of the land in Italy was owned by 20 per cent of the population.
SUMMARY
Clive Allcock talks racing
STATISTICS AND ALL THAT STUFF
Roman Koz provided us with a fascinating look at stats about favourites on pages 18-19 in the November PPM. It really is a good way to start thinking about a structured manner of attacking your betting and is something I have enjoyed fiddling around with all my racing life.
However, he expressed some surprise about a couple of the findings and so I thought that this month I would share some stats of my own to show that there is some agreement here and the findings he revealed really do stand up.
SUMMARY
US expert Barry Meadow warns about racing’s pitfalls
WINNER – OR JUST A STROKE OF LUCK?
Despite what you may read in handicapping books, you can't plan on 33 per cent winners at an average dividend of $6.80 (for $2 unit) for a 12 per cent profit on any particular day, week, month. year, or lifespan, even if that was your result for 1999 on 600 bets.In fact, though while it's easy to keep track of daily wins and losses, trying to calculate how proficient your handicapping really is, isn't that easy.
SUMMARY
The ‘collective solution’ theory
PUBLIC ENEMY No.1
Here's an experiment: For the next 100 races, simply try to pick the winner. Don't worry about price. Just go for the maximum number of winners, but you can't skip any races.I'll bet that no matter how many winners you pick, the public will pick more.
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